OVERVIEW

Conningarth Economists specializes in quantitative economic analysis in many fields, with its core activities being:

Econometric Modelling Tools Applied by Conningarth

INFORUM Model – South African Inter- Industry Forecasting Model (SAFRIM).

Conningarth is a member of an International group of Economist that do macro and detailed sectoral forecast and analysis. Inforum, or the Interindustry Forecasting Project at the University of Maryland, was founded 40 years ago by Dr. Clopper Almon, now Professor Emeritus of the University. Most members of the Inforum group are also members of the International Input-Output Association. Building and using structural economic models of the United States and other economies. Inforum pioneered the construction of dynamic, interindustry, macroeconomic models which portray the economy in a unique “bottom-up” fashion

Regression Analysis.

Regression Analysis Forms the nucleus of Macro-Econometric Modeling and through to the fact that Conningarth is running the Inforum Model it is well familiar with Regression Analysis. Regression Analysis is also used in standalone projects to obtain the relationships of macro and Micro variables in the Economy. Except for Excel and Inforum specific Software A dedicated regression analysis program, E-views is used for this task.

Macro- Economic Impact Analysis.

Macro-Economic impact Analysis is performed by Conningarth by making use of a User-friendly Macro Economic Impact Model This model makes use of Excel spread sheets and is driven by a set of “Macros” which are used to eliminate the need to repeat the steps in a simple task over and over. For a specific project or say a policy intervention, the model provides the size of the macroeconomic impacts, the values of which are then also used to calculate key economic performance or efficiency indicators at national, provincial and local government level. Such key macroeconomic performance indicators can be produced for both the construction and operational phases of a specific project.

Model based on standard Input Output Analysis / the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM).

A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a comprehensive, economy-wide data framework that contains systemized information about the flow of financial and economic aggregates between the different economic interest groups and institutions in an economy (i.e. business enterprises, households, government, etc.) on a logical basis during a given period of time – usually one calendar year. The SAM, therefore, makes it possible to clearly distinguish between these interest groups and their role in the economy, to research the effects of interaction between groups, and to measure how the economic/financial welfare of each group is affected. The SAMs were converted into user-friendly macroeconomic impact models which can be used to calculate the economic impact of “interventions” by way of programmes and projects on the economy.

Financial and Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA).

The CBA is an analysis of economic and financial prices and the input data used in the macroeconomic impact model normally emanates from a CBA. Therefore, the scientific methodology to assess the direct viability and sustainability of a project, together with the use of scarce resources, is a cost-benefit or cost effectiveness analysis. Usually a macroeconomic impact study should follow a cost benefit analysis. Conningarth has also compiled and updated the Manual for Cost Benefit Analysis in South Africa (WRC Report No TT305/07)

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA).

Another analytical instrument for project evaluation used by Conningarth is Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). MCDA aims to take into account multiple criteria to arrive at a scientific conclusion on the impact of the proposed project or program on various aspects of society. MCDA allows for the application of both quantitative and qualitative criteria. Consequently the types of key issues which are to be considered at a project or program level are not restricted by requiring monetary values.